UPDF 2-0 Lugazi Municipal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 5 Dec 2025

📅05/12/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.95
Over 2.5
43%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
12%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-4.8pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.9pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+9.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-9.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.1pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UPDF EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugazi Municipal EU Bookmakers 29%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.42/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/0.85
-2% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / +20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
300 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UPDF
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Lugazi Municipal
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
11.04.2025 Lugazi Municipal 2-2 HT 0-1 UPDF UPDF UGA
19.09.2024 UPDF UPDF 1-0 HT 0-0 Lugazi Municipal UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UPDF
2-0
AWAY Lugazi Municipal
50% Ball Possession 50%
20 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH UPDF vs Lugazi Municipal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UPDF saw off Lugazi Municipal 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had UPDF as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, UPDF had 50% of the ball to Lugazi Municipal's 50%, shots finished 20-5.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, UPDF had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for UPDF and 1.00 for Lugazi Municipal.

What was the final score of UPDF vs Lugazi Municipal?

UPDF 2-0 Lugazi Municipal in the Uganda - Premier League on 05/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UPDF vs Lugazi Municipal?

Before kick-off our model rated a UPDF win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split UPDF 43%, draw 32%, Lugazi Municipal 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UPDF), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (UPDF) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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5 Dec 2025
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