Perth Glory 2-3 Melbourne Victory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 6 Jan 2024

Perth Glory
2-3 HT 1-1
Melbourne Victory
📅06/01/2024 · 🕒13:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.69
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
44%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.85
2-3 Goals
34%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.1
6+ Goals
12%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 29% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.16
1/2
7%
22.15
1/X
6%
14.45
X/1 EV+ ✗
18%
8.5
X/2
16%
4.19
X/X
10%
5.34
2/1
7%
40.0
2/2
21%
2.31
2/X
6%
13.95
Value flag · X/1 at 8.5 — our 18% vs market 8.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
24%
+10.4pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.6pp
44%
Away Win
52%
-8.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.6pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Perth Glory v Melbourne Victory — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 56%
+22% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.09/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.17
+14% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +145%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
250 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 423 · 83%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.8
16.3 Crosses 15.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Perth Glory
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Melbourne Victory
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.06 xG 1.18
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
420 Passes 361
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 30
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
04.10.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 0-4 HT 0-3 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory HAZ
09.04.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-0 HT 0-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
21.01.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 3-1 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
06.04.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 0-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
05.12.2021 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-3 HT 0-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
09.05.2021 Perth Glory Perth Glory 2-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS

Perth Glory 2-3 Melbourne Victory — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Perth Glory
2-3
AWAY Melbourne Victory
0.87 xG 2.26
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 27
4 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 13
285 Passes 532
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
21 Box Touches 37
13 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory edged past Perth Glory 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Melbourne Victory as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Perth Glory had 38% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 62%, shots finished 11-27, expected goals 0.87 to 2.26 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Melbourne Victory's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Perth Glory had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Perth Glory and 1.17 for Melbourne Victory.

What was the final score of Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory?

Perth Glory 2-3 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Perth Glory 34%, draw 22%, Melbourne Victory 44%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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