Inter 2-3 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Super Cup, 6 Jan 2025

Inter
2-3 HT 1-0
Milan
📅06/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.82
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
23%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.78
Over 2.5
50%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.0
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.66
6+ Goals
10%
15.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.45
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.8
X/1
13%
4.23
X/2
7%
8.76
X/X
12%
4.53
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
11%
6.88
2/X
8%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
51%
-0.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.7pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+1.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Inter EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 25%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
2.00/0.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
+31% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / +90%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
384 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 76%
37.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.4 Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Inter
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Milan
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.54 xG 1.11
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
359 Passes 376
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
22.09.2024 Inter Inter 1-2 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTA
22.04.2024 Milan Milan 1-2 HT 0-1 Inter Inter İTA
16.09.2023 Inter Inter 5-1 HT 2-0 Milan Milan İTA
16.05.2023 Inter Inter 1-0 HT 0-0 Milan Milan ŞMP
10.05.2023 Milan Milan 0-2 HT 0-2 Inter Inter ŞMP
05.02.2023 Inter Inter 1-0 HT 1-0 Milan Milan İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Inter
2-3
AWAY Milan
1.80 xG 2.94
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 4
400 Passes 294
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Inter vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan squeezed past Inter 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Inter at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Inter had 56% of the ball to Milan's 44%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 1.80 to 2.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Inter had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Inter and 0.67 for Milan.

What was the final score of Inter vs Milan?

Inter 2-3 Milan in the Italy - Super Cup on 06/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Inter vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Inter win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Inter 51%, draw 26%, Milan 23%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Inter) ✗ BTTS No
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