Inter 1-2 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 22 Sep 2024

Inter
1-2 HT 1-1
Milan
📅22/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Inter vs Milan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.73
No
44%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.89
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
27%
3.16
6+ Goals
11%
10.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.12
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.35
X/1
17%
4.05
X/2
10%
9.95
X/X
12%
5.39
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
22.3
2/2
11%
7.42
2/X
7%
15.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 7% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-7.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.0pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.9pp
44%
BTTS No
46%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Inter v Milan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Inter EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 23%
+5% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +29%
2.07/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.55
+26% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +58% / +5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
441 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 81%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
21.2 Crosses 12.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.8

Inter vs Milan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Inter
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Milan
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.61 xG 0.91
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
316 Passes 391
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
22.04.2024 Milan Milan 1-2 HT 0-1 Inter Inter İTA
16.09.2023 Inter Inter 5-1 HT 2-0 Milan Milan İTA
16.05.2023 Inter Inter 1-0 HT 0-0 Milan Milan ŞMP
10.05.2023 Milan Milan 0-2 HT 0-2 Inter Inter ŞMP
05.02.2023 Inter Inter 1-0 HT 1-0 Milan Milan İTA
18.01.2023 Milan Milan 0-3 HT 0-2 Inter Inter İTSK

Inter 1-2 Milan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Inter
1-2
AWAY Milan
0.73 xG 1.70
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 2
448 Passes 338
89% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 28
24 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Inter vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan nicked a narrow win over Inter 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Inter at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Inter had 56% of the ball to Milan's 44%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 0.73 to 1.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Inter had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Inter and 0.33 for Milan.

What was the final score of Inter vs Milan?

Inter 1-2 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 22/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Inter vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Inter win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Inter 48%, draw 25%, Milan 27%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Inter) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Inter) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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