Macarthur 1-2 Adelaide United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 6 Jan 2025

Macarthur
1-2 HT 0-0
Adelaide United
📅06/01/2025 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Macarthur vs Adelaide United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.46
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
43%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.89
Over 2.5
60%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.33
No
44%
3.05
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.78
2-3 Goals
37%
2.14
4-5 Goals
30%
2.4
6+ Goals
13%
4.67
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.52
1/2
6%
22.55
1/X
7%
12.0
X/1
8%
6.54
X/2 EV+ ✓
20%
6.11
X/X
8%
6.28
2/1
9%
23.85
2/2
17%
3.2
2/X
8%
12.0
Value flag · X/2 at 6.11 — our 20% vs market 12.4%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-3.3pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+4.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
31%
+8.9pp
60%
Over 2.5
69%
-8.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
71%
-15.6pp
44%
BTTS No
29%
+15.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Macarthur v Adelaide United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 43%
+8% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +16%
1.64/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/1.74
+14% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +73% / -26%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 80%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.2
22.9 Crosses 20.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9

Macarthur vs Adelaide United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Adelaide United
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.55 xG 1.82
47% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
312 Passes 353
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 34
26 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.04.2024 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-2 HT 1-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
08.01.2024 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-1 HT 1-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
04.12.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 4-3 HT 2-2 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
20.01.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-0 HT 1-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
16.10.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 2-0 HT 1-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
08.04.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-0 HT 1-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS

Macarthur 1-2 Adelaide United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
1-2
AWAY Adelaide United
0.47 xG 1.72
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 9
393 Passes 393
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 33
28 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Adelaide United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Adelaide United nicked a narrow win over Macarthur 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Adelaide United as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Macarthur had 51% of the ball to Adelaide United's 49%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 0.47 to 1.72 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Adelaide United's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Macarthur had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Macarthur and 1.17 for Adelaide United.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Adelaide United?

Macarthur 1-2 Adelaide United in the Australia - A-League on 06/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Adelaide United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Adelaide United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 34%, draw 23%, Adelaide United 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Adelaide United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Adelaide United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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