Adelaide United 1-2 Macarthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 12 Apr 2024

Adelaide United
1-2 HT 1-0
Macarthur
📅12/04/2024 · 🕒12:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Adelaide United vs Macarthur Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
19%
4.49
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
3.68
Over 2.5
67%
1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.35
No
36%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
9.99
2-3 Goals
30%
2.55
4-5 Goals
33%
2.32
6+ Goals
21%
3.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.82
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.2
X/1
17%
4.39
X/2
8%
12.0
X/X
4%
8.66
2/1
7%
16.4
2/2
13%
6.9
2/X
6%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-7.5pp
19%
Draw
19%
-0.5pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+8.1pp
33%
Under 2.5
24%
+9.0pp
67%
Over 2.5
76%
-9.0pp
64%
BTTS Yes
70%
-6.3pp
36%
BTTS No
30%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Adelaide United v Macarthur — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Macarthur EU Bookmakers 23%
-16% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +15%
1.88/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/2.03
-31% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
410 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 79%
34.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
28.8 Crosses 18.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.8

Adelaide United vs Macarthur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adelaide United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Macarthur
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.48 xG 2.04
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
351 Passes 295
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 32
23 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.01.2024 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-1 HT 1-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
04.12.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 4-3 HT 2-2 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
20.01.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-0 HT 1-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
16.10.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 2-0 HT 1-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
08.04.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-0 HT 1-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
19.02.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 4-1 HT 1-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS

Adelaide United 1-2 Macarthur — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adelaide United
1-2
AWAY Macarthur
2.87 xG 0.82
47% Ball Possession 53%
25 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 10
329 Passes 356
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
41 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 27
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Adelaide United vs Macarthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur squeezed past Adelaide United 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Adelaide United at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (64%) came in.

On the day, Adelaide United had 47% of the ball to Macarthur's 53%, shots finished 25-9, expected goals 2.87 to 0.82 — the balance of chances actually favoured Adelaide United.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Macarthur led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Adelaide United and 1.83 for Macarthur.

What was the final score of Adelaide United vs Macarthur?

Adelaide United 1-2 Macarthur in the Australia - A-League on 12/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adelaide United vs Macarthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Adelaide United win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United 53%, draw 19%, Macarthur 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Adelaide United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Adelaide United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVUS More Australia - A-League
12 Apr 2024
10:00 Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Analysis →