Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Melbourne Victory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 12 Apr 2024

Wellington Phoenix
1-0 HT 0-0
Melbourne Victory
📅12/04/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
38%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.85
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.19
6+ Goals
11%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 28% vs market 20.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
4.2
1/2
6%
24.85
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
7%
6.3
X/2
11%
5.11
X/X
10%
4.97
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
20%
3.14
2/X
7%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
33%
+4.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-2.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.8pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 45%
+19% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -12%
1.49/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.41
+2% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
383 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 83%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.1
15.9 Crosses 20.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wellington Phoenix
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Melbourne Victory
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.02 xG 1.87
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
427 Passes 421
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 33
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.01.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
10.11.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-1 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
01.04.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-2 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
03.02.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 3-1 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
29.04.2022 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 3-1 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
09.02.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS

Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Melbourne Victory — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wellington Phoenix
1-0
AWAY Melbourne Victory
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 9
480 Passes 364
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
POST-MATCH Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wellington Phoenix edged past Melbourne Victory 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 38%) promised a tight game; Wellington Phoenix found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 55% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 45%, shots finished 11-21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 1.67 for Melbourne Victory.

What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?

Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 12/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wellington Phoenix win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 38%, draw 24%, Melbourne Victory 38%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✓ Under 2.5
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