Chesham United 2-1 Merthyr Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 6 Feb 2024

Chesham United
2-1 HT 1-1
Merthyr Town
📅06/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Non League Premier – 2023/2024

Chesham United vs Merthyr Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.82
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
23%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
51%
+3.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.0pp
23%
Away Win
26%
-3.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+5.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-5.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.4pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chesham United v Merthyr Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chesham United EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 29%
+15% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +22%
2.31/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.59
+30% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
364 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 0.0

Chesham United vs Merthyr Town Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chesham United
4W-0D-1L
AWAY Merthyr Town
2.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
The Meetings
09.09.2023 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 1-3 HT 0-2 Chesham United Chesham United İNGNLP
07.03.2023 Chesham United Chesham United 1-2 HT 0-2 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
11.02.2023 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Chesham United Chesham United İNGNLP
09.04.2022 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 0-3 HT 0-1 Chesham United Chesham United İNGNLP
21.08.2021 Chesham United Chesham United 3-1 HT 0-1 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP

Chesham United 2-1 Merthyr Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chesham United
2-1
AWAY Merthyr Town
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Chesham United vs Merthyr Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesham United edged past Merthyr Town 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chesham United as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Chesham United had 45% of the ball to Merthyr Town's 55%, shots finished 8-4.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Chesham United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for Chesham United and 0.80 for Merthyr Town.

What was the final score of Chesham United vs Merthyr Town?

Chesham United 2-1 Merthyr Town in the England - Non League Premier on 06/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chesham United vs Merthyr Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chesham United win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Chesham United 54%, draw 24%, Merthyr Town 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chesham United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chesham United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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