Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Samsunspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Cup, 6 Feb 2024

📅06/02/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.82
Over 2.5
53%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.81
No
44%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.13
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.67
6+ Goals
11%
15.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.67 — our 28% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.54
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.05
X/1
9%
4.17
X/2
10%
7.54
X/X
15%
4.67
2/1
7%
24.6
2/2
14%
5.81
2/X
6%
14.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.0 — our 7% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-7.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+5.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
51%
-4.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
49%
+4.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.9pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Samsunspor EU Bookmakers 29%
-37% / -37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +47% / +47%
0.94/2.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.96/0.97
-46% / -58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +66%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
376 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Samsunspor
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
0.28 xG 1.56
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
328 Passes 249
75% Pass Accuracy 71%
14 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.01.2024 Samsunspor Samsunspor 1-0 HT 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
28.01.2015 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-3 HT 0-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TÜK
03.12.2014 Samsunspor Samsunspor 0-1 HT 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TÜK
22.12.2004 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-3 HT 0-3 Samsunspor Samsunspor TÜK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
2-1
AWAY Samsunspor
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük nicked a narrow win over Samsunspor 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fatih Karagümrük as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 51% of the ball to Samsunspor's 49%, shots finished 16-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Samsunspor led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.75 for Samsunspor.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor?

Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Samsunspor in the Turkey - Cup on 06/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fatih Karagümrük win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 42%, draw 28%, Samsunspor 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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