Samsunspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.62
Over 2.5
50%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.95
No
46%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.58
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
4.62
6+ Goals
13%
25.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.62 — our 23% vs market 16.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.46
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.8
X/1
15%
4.83
X/2
11%
5.79
X/X
14%
3.96
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
16%
4.46
2/X
9%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
58%
-7.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
42%
+7.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.6pp
46%
BTTS No
53%
-6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Samsunspor EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.35/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.56
-33% / +72% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
22.9 Crosses 17.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Samsunspor
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
28.01.2015 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-3 HT 0-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TÜK
03.12.2014 Samsunspor Samsunspor 0-1 HT 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TÜK
22.12.2004 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-3 HT 0-3 Samsunspor Samsunspor TÜK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Samsunspor
1-0
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.56 xG 0.28
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 5
249 Passes 328
71% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Samsunspor edged past Fatih Karagümrük 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Samsunspor found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Samsunspor had 45% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 55%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.56 to 0.28 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Samsunspor's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Samsunspor had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Samsunspor and 0.33 for Fatih Karagümrük.

What was the final score of Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Samsunspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - Super League on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated a Samsunspor win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Samsunspor 38%, draw 28%, Fatih Karagümrük 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Samsunspor) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Samsunspor) ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
TSL More Turkey - Super League
6 Jan 2024
13:30 Çaykur Rizespor vs Hatayspor Analysis →
16:00 Başakşehir FK vs Adana Demirspor Analysis →
19:00 MKE Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor Analysis →