Pachuca 1-2 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 6 Feb 2025

Pachuca
1-2 HT 1-1
Leon
📅06/02/2025 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Pachuca vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
25%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.57
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
3.07
6+ Goals
11%
10.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
48%
+1.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-0.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.9pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pachuca v Leon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +5%
1.64/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.43
+7% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
308 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 77%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
20.5 Crosses 12.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Pachuca vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Leon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.12 xG 1.02
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
293 Passes 321
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
14.07.2024 Leon Leon 0-0 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
08.02.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 3-2 HT 1-2 Leon Leon MEK
11.07.2023 Leon Leon 4-0 HT 3-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
05.02.2023 Leon Leon 0-1 HT 0-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
22.08.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 1-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
23.01.2022 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK

Pachuca 1-2 Leon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
1-2
AWAY Leon
1.87 xG 1.69
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
376 Passes 300
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
34 Box Touches 9
15 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon edged past Pachuca 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Pachuca at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Pachuca had 54% of the ball to Leon's 46%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 1.87 to 1.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pachuca and 1.33 for Leon.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Leon?

Pachuca 1-2 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 06/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 49%, draw 26%, Leon 25%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pachuca) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pachuca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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