Hamburg 2-1 Kaiserslautern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.55
No
42%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.78
2-3 Goals
41%
1.92
4-5 Goals
25%
2.82
6+ Goals
13%
7.73
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.32
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.25
X/1
14%
4.48
X/2
10%
8.62
X/X
10%
5.72
2/1
9%
21.1
2/2
11%
5.78
2/X
8%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
52%
-7.4pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.0pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
40%
+5.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-5.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.6pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamburg EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Kaiserslautern EU Bookmakers 28%
+2% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -14%
2.06/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.44
+16% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
365 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 73%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
19.8 Crosses 18.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamburg
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Kaiserslautern
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.63 xG 1.91
66% Ball Possession 34%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
462 Passes 180
86% Pass Accuracy 67%
29 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 3-3 HT 2-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
15.04.2023 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 2-0 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
08.10.2022 Hamburg Hamburg 1-1 HT 1-0 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern AL2
31.03.2012 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 0-1 HT 0-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL1
30.10.2011 Hamburg Hamburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern AL1
26.02.2011 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 1-1 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamburg
2-1
AWAY Kaiserslautern
2.26 xG 2.94
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
388 Passes 240
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
41 Box Touches 32
17 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hamburg vs Kaiserslautern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamburg edged past Kaiserslautern 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hamburg as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Hamburg had 58% of the ball to Kaiserslautern's 42%, shots finished 15-20, expected goals 2.26 to 2.94 — on chances, Kaiserslautern could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Hamburg and 1.33 for Kaiserslautern.

What was the final score of Hamburg vs Kaiserslautern?

Hamburg 2-1 Kaiserslautern in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamburg vs Kaiserslautern?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Hamburg 44%, draw 27%, Kaiserslautern 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hamburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hamburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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