Karlsruher SC 2-1 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
33%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.95
Over 2.5
54%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.56
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.37
6+ Goals
12%
12.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.97
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
8%
12.7
X/1
13%
5.96
X/2
10%
5.38
X/X
10%
4.67
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
29.0
2/2
16%
3.43
2/X
9%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.0 — our 6% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
35%
+5.8pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
33%
Away Win
38%
-5.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.3pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karlsruher SC EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 42%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +16%
1.79/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.45
+23% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
349 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 74%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
23.3 Crosses 18.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karlsruher SC
0W-3D-3L
AWAY St. Pauli
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.05 xG 1.74
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
269 Passes 383
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-1 HT 0-1 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC AL2
28.05.2023 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-1 HT 0-1 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC AL2
12.11.2022 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 4-4 HT 3-3 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
05.03.2022 St. Pauli St. Pauli 3-1 HT 3-0 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC AL2
25.09.2021 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 1-3 HT 0-2 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
06.03.2021 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 0-0 HT 0-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Karlsruher SC
2-1
AWAY St. Pauli
1.42 xG 0.91
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
264 Passes 508
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Karlsruher SC vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karlsruher SC edged past St. Pauli 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Karlsruher SC as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Karlsruher SC had 37% of the ball to St. Pauli's 63%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.42 to 0.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pauli led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Karlsruher SC and 2.17 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of Karlsruher SC vs St. Pauli?

Karlsruher SC 2-1 St. Pauli in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karlsruher SC vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karlsruher SC win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Karlsruher SC 41%, draw 26%, St. Pauli 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karlsruher SC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karlsruher SC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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