Nürnberg 0-4 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 6 Apr 2024

Nürnberg
0-4 HT 0-3
Holstein Kiel
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
47%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.5
No
49%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.72
2-3 Goals
41%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
2.84
6+ Goals
10%
7.88
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.72 — our 25% vs market 16.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.65
1/2
7%
22.3
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
10%
7.28
X/2
15%
5.02
X/X
14%
5.35
2/1
6%
30.5
2/2
25%
2.75
2/X
6%
12.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
30%
-2.3pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
47%
Away Win
45%
+1.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
62%
-11.0pp
49%
BTTS No
38%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nürnberg v Holstein Kiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 49%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +8%
1.31/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.24
-6% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
314 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 78%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
20.0 Crosses 19.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9

Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nürnberg
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.44 xG 1.46
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
294 Passes 407
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 0-2 HT 0-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
15.04.2023 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 2-1 HT 2-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
09.10.2022 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-3 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
08.05.2022 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 3-0 HT 2-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
04.12.2021 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-1 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2
27.04.2021 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-1 HT 1-0 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL2

Nürnberg 0-4 Holstein Kiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nürnberg
0-4
AWAY Holstein Kiel
0.42 xG 2.51
29% Ball Possession 71%
6 Total Shots 23
1 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 9
230 Passes 672
82% Pass Accuracy 95%
18 Box Touches 38
10 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holstein Kiel ran out comfortable winners over Nürnberg 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Holstein Kiel as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Nürnberg had 29% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 71%, shots finished 6-23, expected goals 0.42 to 2.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Holstein Kiel led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nürnberg and 1.67 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel?

Nürnberg 0-4 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated an Holstein Kiel win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Nürnberg 27%, draw 26%, Holstein Kiel 47%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Holstein Kiel) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Holstein Kiel) ✗ BTTS Yes
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