Dandenong Thunder 1-2 South Melbourne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.48
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
52%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
10%
1/X
10%
X/1
6%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
32%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
19%
+3.5pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.9pp
52%
Away Win
58%
-5.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.4pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dandenong Thunder EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 62%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +10%
0.70/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.06/0.68
-43% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +43%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
244 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.7 Crosses 22.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dandenong Thunder
1W-1D-4L
AWAY South Melbourne
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.88 xG 1.56
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
339 Passes 150
77% Pass Accuracy 58%
21 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
13.06.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 3-2 HT 2-1 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
11.03.2023 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 0-1 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
09.07.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-1 HT 1-1 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
09.04.2022 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 1-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
03.07.2021 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 4-1 HT 2-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
31.03.2021 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
POST-MATCH Dandenong Thunder vs South Melbourne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne nicked a narrow win over Dandenong Thunder 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had South Melbourne as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Dandenong Thunder and 1.50 for South Melbourne.

What was the final score of Dandenong Thunder vs South Melbourne?

Dandenong Thunder 1-2 South Melbourne in the Australia - National Premier League on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dandenong Thunder vs South Melbourne?

Before kick-off our model rated an South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Dandenong Thunder 23%, draw 25%, South Melbourne 52%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (South Melbourne), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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