Aucas 3-0 Cumbaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.43
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.88
No
46%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
4%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-10.5pp
26%
Draw
20%
+6.3pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.6pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aucas EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Cumbaya EU Bookmakers 17%
+1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
1.85/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/1.31
+7% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
368 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 76%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.5
17.3 Crosses 11.5
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aucas
2W-3D-0L
AWAY Cumbaya
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.40
1.11 xG 0.81
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
280 Passes 259
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
24.09.2023 Cumbaya Cumbaya 1-1 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
25.04.2023 Aucas Aucas 2-1 HT 1-0 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
03.10.2022 Cumbaya Cumbaya 0-0 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
02.10.2022 Cumbaya Cumbaya 0-0 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
08.05.2022 Aucas Aucas 1-0 HT 1-0 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aucas
3-0
AWAY Cumbaya
1.78 xG 0.47
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 1
353 Passes 326
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 5
25 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aucas vs Cumbaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aucas swept aside Cumbaya 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aucas as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Aucas had 52% of the ball to Cumbaya's 48%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.78 to 0.47.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Aucas had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Aucas and 0.40 for Cumbaya.

What was the final score of Aucas vs Cumbaya?

Aucas 3-0 Cumbaya in the Ecuador - Premier on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aucas vs Cumbaya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Aucas 55%, draw 26%, Cumbaya 19%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aucas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aucas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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