Slaven Belupo 0-1 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
38%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.04
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.84
6+ Goals
9%
16.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 29% vs market 27.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
11%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
44%
-9.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
38%
Away Win
30%
+8.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.44/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.09
-12% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
288 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 73%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
23.2 Crosses 18.6
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slaven Belupo
3W-2D-1L
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.78 xG 1.42
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
191 Passes 389
66% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.01.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-2 HT 1-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
06.10.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 3-2 HT 2-2 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
28.07.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-2 HT 2-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
07.04.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-1 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
27.01.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
16.09.2022 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slaven Belupo
0-1
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.10 xG 0.58
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
274 Passes 246
66% Pass Accuracy 65%
22 Box Touches 8
26 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin squeezed past Slaven Belupo 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; NK Varazdin found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Slaven Belupo had 53% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 47%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.10 to 0.58 — on chances, Slaven Belupo could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Slaven Belupo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Slaven Belupo and 1.17 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin?

Slaven Belupo 0-1 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated an NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Slaven Belupo 35%, draw 27%, NK Varazdin 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NK Varazdin), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✓ Under 2.5
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