Atletico Nacional 1-2 Fortaleza CEIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒02:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.72
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.6
Over 2.5
39%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.16
No
55%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
55%
-9.4pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.1pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+5.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.5pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.38/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.24
+25% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -12%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
370 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 74%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
17.3 Crosses 17.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 8
455 Passes 247
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
14.04.2014 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 4-3 HT 2-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
1-2
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
1.29 xG 0.64
60% Ball Possession 40%
21 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
352 Passes 202
80% Pass Accuracy 69%
28 Box Touches 12
30 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Fortaleza CEIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza CEIF edged past Atletico Nacional 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Nacional at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 60% of the ball to Fortaleza CEIF's 40%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 1.29 to 0.64 — on chances, Atletico Nacional could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Atletico Nacional 1-2 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Primera on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 46%, draw 31%, Fortaleza CEIF 24%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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