Once Caldas 2-1 Deportes Tolima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒04:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.67
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
41%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.52
Over 2.5
44%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
17%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
34%
-2.1pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.3pp
41%
Away Win
36%
+5.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.4pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 39%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +19%
1.38/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.24
-6% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +37%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
311 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 76%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
20.4 Crosses 13.0
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Deportes Tolima
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.19 xG 1.38
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
306 Passes 311
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.07.2023 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 3-1 HT 2-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
31.01.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-1 HT 1-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
18.09.2022 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
23.03.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-2 HT 0-2 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
09.10.2021 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-2 HT 0-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
18.01.2021 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 1-1 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
2-1
AWAY Deportes Tolima
31% Ball Possession 69%
11 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
149 Passes 432
72% Pass Accuracy 87%
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas squeezed past Deportes Tolima 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Deportes Tolima at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Once Caldas had 31% of the ball to Deportes Tolima's 69%, shots finished 11-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Once Caldas and 1.67 for Deportes Tolima.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?

Once Caldas 2-1 Deportes Tolima in the Colombia - Primera on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Deportes Tolima win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 32%, draw 27%, Deportes Tolima 41%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Deportes Tolima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KOL More Colombia - Primera
6 Apr 2024
00:00 Envigado vs Deportivo Pereira Analysis →
02:10 Atletico Nacional vs Fortaleza CEIF Analysis →