Ternana 0-1 Athletic Carpi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.28
Draw
27%
4.95
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.51
No
57%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.33
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.3
6+ Goals
11%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 29% vs market 23.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
5%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
74%
-18.2pp
27%
Draw
17%
+9.4pp
17%
Away Win
9%
+8.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
36%
+7.2pp
57%
BTTS No
64%
-7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ternana EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Carpi EU Bookmakers 11%
+5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
2.43/0.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/1.47
+34% / +72% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +17%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
479 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ternana
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Athletic Carpi
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 9
11 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2024 Athletic Carpi Athletic Carpi 1-2 HT 1-1 Ternana Ternana İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ternana
0-1
AWAY Athletic Carpi
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ternana vs Athletic Carpi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Carpi edged past Ternana 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Ternana at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Ternana had 59% of the ball to Athletic Carpi's 41%, shots finished 15-7.

What was the final score of Ternana vs Athletic Carpi?

Ternana 0-1 Athletic Carpi in the Italy - Serie C on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ternana vs Athletic Carpi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ternana win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Ternana 56%, draw 27%, Athletic Carpi 17%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Ternana) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ternana) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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