America Mineiro 1-0 Botafogo SP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.75
Over 2.5
40%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.82
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
18%
3.8
6+ Goals
9%
17.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 32% vs market 28.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
12%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-8.9pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.3pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
53%
+6.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
47%
-6.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.1pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo SP EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.47/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.05
+15% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
21.5 Crosses 16.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME America Mineiro
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Botafogo SP
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.19 xG 0.91
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
362 Passes 241
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 America Mineiro America Mineiro 3-1 HT 2-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
20.04.2024 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 1-1 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
16.01.2021 America Mineiro America Mineiro 1-1 HT 0-1 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
17.10.2020 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 1-2 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
07.09.2019 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-0 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
01.05.2019 America Mineiro America Mineiro 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME America Mineiro
1-0
AWAY Botafogo SP
2.35 xG 0.52
70% Ball Possession 30%
17 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 8
522 Passes 161
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
29 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH America Mineiro vs Botafogo SP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

America Mineiro edged past Botafogo SP 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had America Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, America Mineiro had 70% of the ball to Botafogo SP's 30%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 2.35 to 0.52 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold America Mineiro's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, America Mineiro had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for America Mineiro and 0.83 for Botafogo SP.

What was the final score of America Mineiro vs Botafogo SP?

America Mineiro 1-0 Botafogo SP in the Brazil - Serie B on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for America Mineiro vs Botafogo SP?

Before kick-off our model rated a America Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split America Mineiro 48%, draw 29%, Botafogo SP 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (America Mineiro), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (America Mineiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →