Botafogo SP 1-1 America Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
33%
3.04
Away
35%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
74%
1.52
Over 2.5
26%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
31%
2.09
No
69%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
47%
2.24
2-3 Goals
35%
1.79
4-5 Goals
11%
5.52
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.24 — our 47% vs market 37.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
17%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.8pp
33%
Draw
29%
+3.6pp
35%
Away Win
41%
-5.5pp
74%
Under 2.5
62%
+12.4pp
26%
Over 2.5
38%
-12.4pp
31%
BTTS Yes
44%
-13.1pp
69%
BTTS No
56%
+13.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo SP EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +16%
0.99/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.00
-11% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +82%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 78%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
20.1 Crosses 16.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo SP
1W-2D-1L
AWAY America Mineiro
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.04 xG 1.37
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
243 Passes 359
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.01.2021 America Mineiro America Mineiro 1-1 HT 0-1 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
17.10.2020 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 1-2 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
07.09.2019 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-0 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
01.05.2019 America Mineiro America Mineiro 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo SP
1-1
AWAY America Mineiro
0.44 xG 0.33
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 1
211 Passes 321
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 6
13 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Botafogo SP vs America Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo SP and America Mineiro couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 33% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (74%) landed while no to both teams scoring (69%) missed.

On the day, Botafogo SP had 43% of the ball to America Mineiro's 57%, shots finished 8-7, expected goals 0.44 to 0.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Botafogo SP and 0.75 for America Mineiro.

What was the final score of Botafogo SP vs America Mineiro?

Botafogo SP 1-1 America Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie B on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo SP vs America Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated an America Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Botafogo SP 32%, draw 33%, America Mineiro 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (America Mineiro), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (America Mineiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
20 Apr 2024
01:00 Novorizontino vs CRB Analysis →
03:00 Operario PR vs Avai Analysis →
21:30 Chapecoense vs Ituano Analysis →
22:30 Santos vs Paysandu Analysis →
23:00 Amazonas vs Sport Recife Analysis →