Amazonas 2-3 Sport Recife — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.17
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.52
Over 2.5
34%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.32
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
15%
5.26
6+ Goals
7%
33.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.32 — our 37% vs market 36.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
28%
+1.6pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.8pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.4pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.8pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.8pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.6pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amazonas EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 46%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -25%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
Crosses 20.6
Yellow Cards 2.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amazonas
2-3
AWAY Sport Recife
0.58 xG 2.35
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
315 Passes 258
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 23
26 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Amazonas vs Sport Recife
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sport Recife edged past Amazonas 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (30% / 30% / 40%) promised a tight game; Sport Recife found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Amazonas had 54% of the ball to Sport Recife's 46%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.58 to 2.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sport Recife's control.

What was the final score of Amazonas vs Sport Recife?

Amazonas 2-3 Sport Recife in the Brazil - Serie B on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amazonas vs Sport Recife?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sport Recife win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Amazonas 30%, draw 30%, Sport Recife 40%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sport Recife) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sport Recife) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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