Chapecoense 3-1 Ituano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 20 Apr 2024

Chapecoense
3-1 HT 1-0
Ituano
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Chapecoense vs Ituano Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.92
Draw
33%
3.11
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.51
Over 2.5
35%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.16
No
63%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2.25
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
16%
5.48
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
48%
-9.9pp
33%
Draw
28%
+4.5pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.5pp
65%
Under 2.5
62%
+2.6pp
35%
Over 2.5
38%
-2.6pp
37%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.5pp
63%
BTTS No
58%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chapecoense v Ituano — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Ituano EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
1.27/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.40
-13% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
354 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 77%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
24.3 Crosses 17.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9

Chapecoense vs Ituano Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chapecoense
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Ituano
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.04 xG 1.07
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
307 Passes 265
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
18.11.2023 Ituano Ituano 0-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
19.07.2023 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-0 HT 0-0 Ituano Ituano BR2
24.07.2022 Ituano Ituano 1-0 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
09.04.2022 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-1 HT 0-0 Ituano Ituano BR2

Chapecoense 3-1 Ituano — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chapecoense
3-1
AWAY Ituano
1.92 xG 1.16
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
342 Passes 291
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 8
16 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chapecoense vs Ituano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chapecoense got the better of Ituano 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 33% / 29%) promised a tight game; Chapecoense found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chapecoense had 54% of the ball to Ituano's 46%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.92 to 1.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Chapecoense and 0.50 for Ituano.

What was the final score of Chapecoense vs Ituano?

Chapecoense 3-1 Ituano in the Brazil - Serie B on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chapecoense vs Ituano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chapecoense win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 38%, draw 33%, Ituano 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chapecoense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chapecoense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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