Ajax 3-1 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 6 Apr 2025

Ajax
3-1 HT 2-1
NAC Breda
📅06/04/2025 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Ajax vs NAC Breda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.3
Draw
17%
4.95
Away
16%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.16
2-3 Goals
38%
1.99
4-5 Goals
26%
2.66
6+ Goals
14%
6.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.49
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
5%
20.4
X/1
18%
3.94
X/2
7%
19.6
X/X
6%
8.28
2/1
9%
21.35
2/2
5%
16.35
2/X
6%
23.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
72%
-4.8pp
17%
Draw
17%
-0.2pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+5.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.6pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ajax v NAC Breda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -8%
2.72/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/2.37
+20% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +12%
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
490 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 77%
47.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
22.9 Crosses 13.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8

Ajax vs NAC Breda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
4W-1D-1L
AWAY NAC Breda
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
3.17 xG 0.86
70% Ball Possession 30%
24 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 2
588 Passes 201
89% Pass Accuracy 72%
52 Box Touches 10
32 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.08.2024 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-1 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
17.02.2019 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
24.11.2018 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-3 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
04.02.2018 Ajax Ajax 3-1 HT 2-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
18.11.2017 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-8 HT 0-5 Ajax Ajax HOL
19.04.2015 Ajax Ajax 0-0 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL

Ajax 3-1 NAC Breda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
3-1
AWAY NAC Breda
2.01 xG 0.72
63% Ball Possession 37%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 0
527 Passes 285
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Ajax vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax saw off NAC Breda 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Ajax had 63% of the ball to NAC Breda's 37%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 2.01 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Ajax and 0.50 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of Ajax vs NAC Breda?

Ajax 3-1 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Ajax 68%, draw 17%, NAC Breda 16%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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