NAC Breda 2-1 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.71
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
53%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
32%
2.51
Over 2.5
68%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.63
No
41%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
5.39
2-3 Goals
36%
2.0
4-5 Goals
32%
2.68
6+ Goals
15%
6.56
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
8.75
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
19.6
1/X
7%
17.05
X/1
7%
12.55
X/2
14%
3.86
X/X
9%
7.13
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
28%
1.78
2/X
7%
16.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.6 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
18%
+6.0pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.8pp
53%
Away Win
62%
-9.8pp
32%
Under 2.5
36%
-4.1pp
68%
Over 2.5
64%
+4.1pp
59%
BTTS Yes
57%
+1.5pp
41%
BTTS No
43%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax EU Bookmakers 67%
+8% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +8%
1.46/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.31/1.33
-8% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -14%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
280 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 461 · 83%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 38.3
14.6 Crosses 19.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Ajax
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
0.80 xG 3.61
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 25
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 10
238 Passes 554
75% Pass Accuracy 89%
10 Box Touches 56
11 Crosses 35
3 Yellow Cards 1
17.02.2019 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
24.11.2018 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-3 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
04.02.2018 Ajax Ajax 3-1 HT 2-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
18.11.2017 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-8 HT 0-5 Ajax Ajax HOL
19.04.2015 Ajax Ajax 0-0 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
27.09.2014 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-5 HT 0-3 Ajax Ajax HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
2-1
AWAY Ajax
1.06 xG 1.38
25% Ball Possession 75%
6 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 8
159 Passes 626
69% Pass Accuracy 89%
10 Box Touches 38
4 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs Ajax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda edged past Ajax 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Ajax at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (68%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, NAC Breda had 25% of the ball to Ajax's 75%, shots finished 6-16, expected goals 1.06 to 1.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for NAC Breda and 4.00 for Ajax.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs Ajax?

NAC Breda 2-1 Ajax in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs Ajax?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 24%, draw 23%, Ajax 53%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ajax) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
18 Aug 2024
13:15 Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven Analysis →
15:30 Willem II vs Go Ahead Eagles Analysis →
15:30 PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord Analysis →