TransMara Sugar 1-1 Tusker — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 6 Apr 2025

TransMara Sugar
1-1 HT 0-0
Tusker
📅06/04/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Kenya - Premier League – 2024/2025

TransMara Sugar vs Tusker Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.29
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
39%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.56
Over 2.5
39%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.16
No
56%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
13%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
27%
+2.4pp
31%
Draw
32%
-0.7pp
39%
Away Win
41%
-1.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
60%
+1.0pp
39%
Over 2.5
40%
-1.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.4pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

TransMara Sugar v Tusker — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TransMara Sugar EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Tusker EU Bookmakers 45%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.25/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.40
+34% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -32%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
304 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 1.5

TransMara Sugar vs Tusker Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME TransMara Sugar
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Tusker
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 28
4 Shots on Target 10
1 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.11.2024 Tusker Tusker 2-1 HT 1-1 TransMara Sugar TransMara Sugar KEN
POST-MATCH TransMara Sugar vs Tusker
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

TransMara Sugar and Tusker shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 30% / 31% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

What was the final score of TransMara Sugar vs Tusker?

TransMara Sugar 1-1 Tusker in the Kenya - Premier League on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TransMara Sugar vs Tusker?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tusker win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split TransMara Sugar 30%, draw 31%, Tusker 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tusker), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tusker) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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