Tusker 2-1 TransMara Sugar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 27 Nov 2024

📅27/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
33%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.52
Over 2.5
42%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
22%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.6pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.9pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+4.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.0pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tusker EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY TransMara Sugar EU Bookmakers 32%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/0.49
+54% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +88% / +30%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
336 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tusker
2-1
AWAY TransMara Sugar
51% Ball Possession 49%
28 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Tusker vs TransMara Sugar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tusker nicked a narrow win over TransMara Sugar 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Tusker found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tusker had 51% of the ball to TransMara Sugar's 49%, shots finished 28-9.

What was the final score of Tusker vs TransMara Sugar?

Tusker 2-1 TransMara Sugar in the Kenya - Premier League on 27/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tusker vs TransMara Sugar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tusker win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Tusker 39%, draw 28%, TransMara Sugar 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tusker) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tusker) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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