Botafogo SP 1-2 Sao Bernardo FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 6 Apr 2026

Botafogo SP
1-2 HT 1-0
Sao Bernardo FC
📅06/04/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2026

Botafogo SP vs Sao Bernardo FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.62
Over 2.5
43%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.96
No
52%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.45
2-3 Goals
36%
1.7
4-5 Goals
18%
4.26
6+ Goals
9%
22.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.45 — our 37% vs market 32.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
24%
X/2
6%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 57% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
47%
+0.8pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.2pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Botafogo SP v Sao Bernardo FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo SP EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Bernardo FC EU Bookmakers 27%
-11% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-33% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
363 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 76%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
22.5 Crosses –
2.2 Yellow Cards –

Botafogo SP vs Sao Bernardo FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo SP
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sao Bernardo FC
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.72 xG 0.97
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
188 Passes 386
64% Pass Accuracy 78%
8 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 17
5 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.02.2023 Sao Bernardo FC Sao Bernardo FC 2-1 HT 0-1 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BREPAU
28.02.2022 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 1-0 HT 1-0 Sao Bernardo FC Sao Bernardo FC BREPAU
11.02.2016 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 1-1 HT 1-0 Sao Bernardo FC Sao Bernardo FC BREPAU
28.03.2015 Sao Bernardo FC Sao Bernardo FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BRPL1
18.01.2014 Sao Bernardo FC Sao Bernardo FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BRPL1
27.01.2013 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 2-0 HT 0-0 Sao Bernardo FC Sao Bernardo FC BREPAU

Botafogo SP 1-2 Sao Bernardo FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo SP
1-2
AWAY Sao Bernardo FC
1.22 xG 1.62
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 8
323 Passes 352
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Botafogo SP vs Sao Bernardo FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Bernardo FC edged past Botafogo SP 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Botafogo SP at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Botafogo SP had 48% of the ball to Sao Bernardo FC's 52%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 1.22 to 1.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Bernardo FC led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Botafogo SP and 0.83 for Sao Bernardo FC.

What was the final score of Botafogo SP vs Sao Bernardo FC?

Botafogo SP 1-2 Sao Bernardo FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 06/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo SP vs Sao Bernardo FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo SP win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Botafogo SP 48%, draw 27%, Sao Bernardo FC 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Botafogo SP) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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