Fakel 1-1 Zenit St. Petersburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 6 May 2024

Fakel
1-1 HT 0-1
Zenit St. Petersburg
📅06/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2023/2024

Fakel vs Zenit St. Petersburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.09
Draw
30%
3.64
Away
46%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.62
Over 2.5
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.19
No
54%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.52
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.7
6+ Goals
9%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
9.69
1/2
9%
28.5
1/X
5%
19.2
X/1
9%
10.65
X/2
15%
3.46
X/X
16%
4.53
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.09
2/X
9%
18.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
17%
+7.0pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.6pp
46%
Away Win
58%
-12.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+4.3pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fakel v Zenit St. Petersburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fakel EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg EU Bookmakers 62%
-31% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
0.69/1.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/0.76
-46% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -1%
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
221 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 421 · 83%
15.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.6
19.8 Crosses 21.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.2

Fakel vs Zenit St. Petersburg Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fakel
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
0.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
0.25 xG 1.35
30% Ball Possession 70%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
120 Passes 541
57% Pass Accuracy 85%
11 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
13.08.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
03.06.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
16.11.2022 Fakel Fakel 0-2 HT 0-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUK
08.10.2022 Fakel Fakel 1-1 HT 1-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
31.08.2022 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 2-0 HT 2-0 Fakel Fakel RUK

Fakel 1-1 Zenit St. Petersburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fakel
1-1
AWAY Zenit St. Petersburg
1.21 xG 1.03
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
254 Passes 448
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fakel vs Zenit St. Petersburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fakel and Zenit St. Petersburg couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Zenit St. Petersburg at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Fakel had 40% of the ball to Zenit St. Petersburg's 60%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 1.21 to 1.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Zenit St. Petersburg led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.20 goals for Fakel and 1.60 for Zenit St. Petersburg.

What was the final score of Fakel vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

Fakel 1-1 Zenit St. Petersburg in the Russia - Premier League on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fakel vs Zenit St. Petersburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Zenit St. Petersburg win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Fakel 24%, draw 30%, Zenit St. Petersburg 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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