Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 Rostov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 6 May 2024

Lokomotiv Moscow
1-0 HT 1-0
Rostov
📅06/05/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2023/2024

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.85
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.19
6+ Goals
10%
10.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 32% vs market 20.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.92
1/2
5%
31.5
1/X
8%
12.55
X/1
17%
4.93
X/2
13%
6.84
X/X
11%
4.9
2/1
11%
24.45
2/2
12%
4.64
2/X
6%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.6pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lokomotiv Moscow v Rostov — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Rostov EU Bookmakers 33%
+9% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +13%
1.62/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.22
+24% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
301 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 78%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
17.2 Crosses 19.2
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.2

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Rostov
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.79 xG 1.38
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
246 Passes 260
70% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Rostov Rostov 1-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
03.10.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-1 HT 2-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
30.08.2023 Rostov Rostov 2-1 HT 2-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
04.03.2023 Rostov Rostov 1-3 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
24.07.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-2 HT 1-1 Rostov Rostov RUS
10.04.2022 Rostov Rostov 4-1 HT 2-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS

Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 Rostov — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
1-0
AWAY Rostov
0.42 xG 1.10
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 8
223 Passes 396
66% Pass Accuracy 79%
7 Box Touches 34
6 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow squeezed past Rostov 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lokomotiv Moscow as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 39% of the ball to Rostov's 61%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.42 to 1.10 — the balance of chances actually favoured Rostov.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rostov led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 1.83 for Rostov.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov?

Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 Rostov in the Russia - Premier League on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 44%, draw 25%, Rostov 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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