Ryukyu 1-2 Kagoshima United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 6 May 2025

📅06/05/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.87
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
46%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.71
Over 2.5
48%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.95
No
47%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
21%
X/X
19%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
22%
+0.8pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.4pp
46%
Away Win
52%
-5.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
55%
-2.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
45%
+2.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.6pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ryukyu EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 56%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -21%
1.42/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.12
+39% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -1%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
263 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.7 Crosses 18.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ryukyu
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Kagoshima United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 1
11.11.2023 Ryukyu Ryukyu 2-0 HT 0-0 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JAP3
14.05.2023 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 2-0 HT 0-0 Ryukyu Ryukyu JAP3
07.09.2019 Ryukyu Ryukyu 2-1 HT 1-1 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ryukyu
1-2
AWAY Kagoshima United
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
285 Passes 252
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
10 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ryukyu vs Kagoshima United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kagoshima United squeezed past Ryukyu 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kagoshima United as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Ryukyu had 55% of the ball to Kagoshima United's 45%, shots finished 7-17.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ryukyu had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ryukyu and 1.00 for Kagoshima United.

What was the final score of Ryukyu vs Kagoshima United?

Ryukyu 1-2 Kagoshima United in the Japan - J3 League on 06/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ryukyu vs Kagoshima United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kagoshima United win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Ryukyu 23%, draw 31%, Kagoshima United 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kagoshima United), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kagoshima United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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