Almere City 3-1 De Graafschap — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 6 May 2026

Almere City
3 - 1 HT 1 - 1
De Graafschap
📅06/05/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✓
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2025/2026

Almere City vs De Graafschap Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under
34%
2.51
Over Pick
66%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.45
No
37%
2.56
Total Goals
0-1
15%
5.16
2-3
43%
1.96
4-5
31%
2.59
6+
11%
6.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.62
1/2
2%
28.0
1/X
6%
12.45
X/1
15%
5.11
X/2
9%
7.46
X/X
13%
5.99
2/1 ✗
3%
20.3
2/2
16%
4.69
2/X
5%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.3 — our 3% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Almere City v De Graafschap — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Almere City The Market 51%
Head to Head
AWAY De Graafschap The Market 32%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.97 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.34
1.24 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.85
Average Attack Strength Average
Average Defense Strength Average
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
334 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 78%
31 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23
22 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2

Almere City vs De Graafschap Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almere City
2W-1D-3L
AWAY De Graafschap
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.42 xG 1.54
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
350 Passes 340
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
18.01.2026 Almere City Almere City 2-0 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
29.09.2025 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-2 HT 3-1 Almere City Almere City HOL2
20.01.2023 Almere City Almere City 2-2 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
16.09.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-2 HT 1-0 Almere City Almere City HOL2
21.01.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-0 HT 0-0 Almere City Almere City HOL2
10.10.2021 Almere City Almere City 1-2 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2

Almere City 3-1 De Graafschap — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almere City
3 - 1
AWAY De Graafschap
2.57 xG 0.43
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
244 Passes 398
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
35 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 17
REVIEW Almere City vs De Graafschap
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Almere City had too much for De Graafschap 3-1. Level at 1-1 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.

True to our pre-match read, our model had Almere City as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals call finished the job: over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (63%) landed.

On the day, De Graafschap saw more of the ball, 59% to 41%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 2.57 to 0.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.50 a game for Almere City against 1.50 for De Graafschap.

Almere City vs De Graafschap Result & Final Score

Almere City 3 - 1 De Graafschap in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 06/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Almere City vs De Graafschap Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Almere City win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Almere City 49%, draw 24%, De Graafschap 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almere City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Almere City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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