De Graafschap vs Almere City Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
De Graafschap v Almere City — Team-Based Signals
De Graafschap vs Almere City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-1
De Graafschap
HOL2
1-2
HT 1-0
Almere City
HOL2
1-0
HT 0-0
Almere City
HOL2
1-2
HT 0-0
De Graafschap
HOL2
2-2
HT 1-1
Almere City
HOL2
1-0
HT 0-0
De Graafschap
HOL2
De Graafschap 3-2 Almere City — Actual Match Statistics
De Graafschap nicked a narrow win over Almere City 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, De Graafschap had 55% of the ball to Almere City's 45%, shots finished 14-20, expected goals 2.81 to 2.15.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for De Graafschap and 1.33 for Almere City.
What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Almere City?
De Graafschap 3-2 Almere City in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 29/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Almere City?
Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 54%, draw 21%, Almere City 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.