PSV II 2-2 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 29 Sep 2025

📅29/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.49
No
43%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.21
2-3 Goals
38%
1.96
4-5 Goals
28%
2.52
6+ Goals
11%
5.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.23
1/2
5%
33.0
1/X
9%
13.45
X/1
19%
4.65
X/2
9%
8.85
X/X
5%
6.5
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.1
2/2
12%
5.92
2/X
7%
14.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.1 — our 10% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
53%
-0.2pp
21%
Draw
22%
-1.1pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
63%
-5.6pp
43%
BTTS No
37%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV II EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 28%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -8%
1.81/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.63
+6% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
402 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 79%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
17.2 Crosses 15.2
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV II
1W-2D-3L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.72 xG 1.62
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
472 Passes 316
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
14.04.2025 PSV II PSV II 3-2 HT 1-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
30.08.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-2 HT 0-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
19.02.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-3 HT 1-2 PSV II PSV II HOL2
06.10.2023 PSV II PSV II 2-3 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
24.04.2023 PSV II PSV II 0-1 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
14.10.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-1 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV II
2-2
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.07 xG 1.12
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
426 Passes 284
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PSV II vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV II and MVV Maastricht couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was PSV II at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, PSV II had 58% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 42%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 1.07 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, MVV Maastricht led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for PSV II and 2.17 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of PSV II vs MVV Maastricht?

PSV II 2-2 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 29/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV II vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV II win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split PSV II 53%, draw 21%, MVV Maastricht 26%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PSV II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PSV II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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