PSV II 3-2 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 14 Apr 2025

📅14/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
2.96
Over 2.5
65%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.35
No
37%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
6.84
2-3 Goals
34%
2.18
4-5 Goals
34%
2.38
6+ Goals
16%
4.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.65
1/2
9%
25.5
1/X
5%
12.25
X/1
11%
5.53
X/2
7%
7.81
X/X
12%
6.77
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
19.2
2/2
15%
4.51
2/X
10%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.2 — our 11% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-4.8pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.4pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.5pp
35%
Under 2.5
30%
+5.0pp
65%
Over 2.5
70%
-5.0pp
63%
BTTS Yes
70%
-7.6pp
37%
BTTS No
30%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV II EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 33%
-6% / -37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
1.39/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.64
-12% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
15.1 Crosses 15.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV II
0W-3D-3L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.75 xG 1.42
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
469 Passes 309
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
32 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
30.08.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-2 HT 0-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
19.02.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-3 HT 1-2 PSV II PSV II HOL2
06.10.2023 PSV II PSV II 2-3 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
24.04.2023 PSV II PSV II 0-1 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
14.10.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-1 HT 1-0 PSV II PSV II HOL2
25.04.2022 PSV II PSV II 2-2 HT 2-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV II
3-2
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.42 xG 1.66
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 4
447 Passes 354
89% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 23
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH PSV II vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV II nicked a narrow win over MVV Maastricht 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had PSV II as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (63%) came in.

On the day, PSV II had 53% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 47%, shots finished 17-15, expected goals 1.42 to 1.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, MVV Maastricht led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for PSV II and 2.17 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of PSV II vs MVV Maastricht?

PSV II 3-2 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 14/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV II vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV II win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split PSV II 42%, draw 27%, MVV Maastricht 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSV II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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