RKC Waalwijk 2-1 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 29 Sep 2025

📅29/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.49
Draw
19%
4.34
Away
27%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.59
Over 2.5
62%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.56
No
42%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
63%
-8.3pp
19%
Draw
20%
-0.8pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+9.1pp
38%
Under 2.5
35%
+3.0pp
62%
Over 2.5
65%
-3.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.7pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 21%
-11% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
0.60/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.80
-22% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
335 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 78%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
16.0 Crosses 11.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RKC Waalwijk
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Ajax II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
130 Passes 559
57% Pass Accuracy 87%
8 Box Touches 37
10 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.01.2019 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 4-1 HT 4-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
19.10.2018 Ajax II Ajax II 2-1 HT 1-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
26.01.2018 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-4 HT 1-2 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
11.09.2017 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 1-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
03.02.2017 Ajax II Ajax II 4-1 HT 1-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL2
26.08.2016 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 3-2 HT 2-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RKC Waalwijk
2-1
AWAY Ajax II
2.80 xG 0.85
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 2
397 Passes 297
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
37 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH RKC Waalwijk vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RKC Waalwijk edged past Ajax II 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had RKC Waalwijk as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, RKC Waalwijk had 56% of the ball to Ajax II's 44%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 2.80 to 0.85 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold RKC Waalwijk's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax II led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for RKC Waalwijk and 2.33 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of RKC Waalwijk vs Ajax II?

RKC Waalwijk 2-1 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 29/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RKC Waalwijk vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated a RKC Waalwijk win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split RKC Waalwijk 54%, draw 19%, Ajax II 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RKC Waalwijk), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (RKC Waalwijk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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