RKC Waalwijk vs Ajax II Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
RKC Waalwijk v Ajax II — Team-Based Signals
RKC Waalwijk vs Ajax II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-1
HT 4-0
Ajax II
HOL2
2-1
HT 1-1
RKC Waalwijk
HOL2
2-4
HT 1-2
Ajax II
HOL2
1-1
HT 1-0
RKC Waalwijk
HOL2
4-1
HT 1-0
RKC Waalwijk
HOL2
3-2
HT 2-0
Ajax II
HOL2
RKC Waalwijk 2-1 Ajax II — Actual Match Statistics
RKC Waalwijk edged past Ajax II 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had RKC Waalwijk as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, RKC Waalwijk had 56% of the ball to Ajax II's 44%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 2.80 to 0.85 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold RKC Waalwijk's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax II led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for RKC Waalwijk and 2.33 for Ajax II.
What was the final score of RKC Waalwijk vs Ajax II?
RKC Waalwijk 2-1 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 29/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for RKC Waalwijk vs Ajax II?
Before kick-off our model rated a RKC Waalwijk win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split RKC Waalwijk 54%, draw 19%, Ajax II 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RKC Waalwijk), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.