Lugazi Municipal vs Mbarara City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lugazi Municipal v Mbarara City — Team-Based Signals
Lugazi Municipal vs Mbarara City Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
Lugazi Municipal 0-1 Mbarara City — Actual Match Statistics
Mbarara City squeezed past Lugazi Municipal 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (36% / 33% / 31%) promised a tight game; Mbarara City found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Lugazi Municipal had 56% of the ball to Mbarara City's 44%, shots finished 9-8.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lugazi Municipal and 0.50 for Mbarara City.
What was the final score of Lugazi Municipal vs Mbarara City?
Lugazi Municipal 0-1 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 06/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lugazi Municipal vs Mbarara City?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lugazi Municipal win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Lugazi Municipal 36%, draw 33%, Mbarara City 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Lugazi Municipal) went the other way.