Ilves Tampere 3-0 HJK Helsinki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 6 Jul 2024

📅06/07/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.61
No
43%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.87
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.18
6+ Goals
10%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.17
1/2
8%
29.0
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1
13%
5.15
X/2
11%
6.21
X/X
15%
5.01
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
24.85
2/2
11%
4.12
2/X
10%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.85 — our 10% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.9pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.1pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.1pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.25/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.31
+13% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -19%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
333 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
15.4 Crosses 19.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ilves Tampere
0W-2D-4L
AWAY HJK Helsinki
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.90 xG 0.82
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
251 Passes 374
70% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
25.05.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-1 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
22.07.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
21.05.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-1 HT 0-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
23.07.2022 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-2 HT 1-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
08.05.2022 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-1 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
16.10.2021 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 2-3 HT 1-2 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ilves Tampere
3-0
AWAY HJK Helsinki
1.14 xG 1.23
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 8
444 Passes 401
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
31 Box Touches 34
13 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ilves Tampere vs HJK Helsinki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilves Tampere swept aside HJK Helsinki 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; Ilves Tampere found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ilves Tampere had 52% of the ball to HJK Helsinki's 48%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 1.14 to 1.23.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ilves Tampere and 1.67 for HJK Helsinki.

What was the final score of Ilves Tampere vs HJK Helsinki?

Ilves Tampere 3-0 HJK Helsinki in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 06/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ilves Tampere vs HJK Helsinki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ilves Tampere 40%, draw 30%, HJK Helsinki 31%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ilves Tampere), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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FİN More Finland - Veikkausliiga
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