Forge 3-3 Vancouver FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 6 Jul 2024

📅06/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.63
2-3 Goals
39%
1.91
4-5 Goals
21%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.09
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.63 — our 29% vs market 16.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
54%
-1.8pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.6pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+1.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.9pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Forge EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Vancouver FC EU Bookmakers 26%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-6% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
387 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 77%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.7 Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Forge
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Vancouver FC
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
1.54 xG 1.02
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
445 Passes 241
84% Pass Accuracy 69%
32 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.05.2024 Forge Forge 1-2 HT 0-2 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC CAPL
04.09.2023 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 0-3 HT 0-2 Forge Forge CAPL
29.07.2023 Forge Forge 2-0 HT 0-0 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC KAPL
21.06.2023 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 2-0 HT 2-0 Forge Forge KAPL
20.05.2023 Forge Forge 0-0 HT 0-0 Vancouver FC Vancouver FC CAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Forge
3-3
AWAY Vancouver FC
1.69 xG 0.43
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
395 Passes 189
86% Pass Accuracy 70%
36 Box Touches 7
23 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Forge vs Vancouver FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Forge and Vancouver FC shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Forge at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Forge had 63% of the ball to Vancouver FC's 37%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 1.69 to 0.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Forge and 0.80 for Vancouver FC.

What was the final score of Forge vs Vancouver FC?

Forge 3-3 Vancouver FC in the Kanada - Premier League on 06/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Forge vs Vancouver FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Forge win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Forge 52%, draw 24%, Vancouver FC 24%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Forge), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Forge) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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