Orn Horten 1-1 Arendal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - 2nd Division, 6 Jul 2024

📅06/07/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
3.08
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
39%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.15
2-3 Goals
42%
1.86
4-5 Goals
20%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.56
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.15 — our 27% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
29%
+9.5pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.4pp
38%
Away Win
46%
-8.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.0pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orn Horten EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Arendal EU Bookmakers 50%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -5%
2.41/2.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.64
+53% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
320 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orn Horten
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Arendal
2.20 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 20
9 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
28.04.2024 Arendal Arendal 1-0 Orn Horten Orn Horten NOR3
16.09.2023 Orn Horten Orn Horten 1-3 HT 0-2 Arendal Arendal NOR3
04.06.2023 Arendal Arendal 3-0 HT 3-0 Orn Horten Orn Horten NOR3
13.08.2022 Arendal Arendal 3-2 HT 2-1 Orn Horten Orn Horten NOR3
25.06.2022 Orn Horten Orn Horten 8-1 HT 4-0 Arendal Arendal NOR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orn Horten
1-1
AWAY Arendal
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Orn Horten vs Arendal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orn Horten and Arendal couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 23% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Orn Horten had 50% of the ball to Arendal's 50%, shots finished 17-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Arendal led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for Orn Horten and 2.20 for Arendal.

What was the final score of Orn Horten vs Arendal?

Orn Horten 1-1 Arendal in the Norway - 2nd Division on 06/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orn Horten vs Arendal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orn Horten win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Orn Horten 38%, draw 23%, Arendal 38%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/23/38) ✗ BTTS No
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