Cerro Largo 1-0 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 6 Jul 2024

📅06/07/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
3.08
Draw
22%
3.04
Away
40%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.67
Over 2.5
51%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
6%
2/1
3%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
29%
+8.6pp
22%
Draw
30%
-7.7pp
40%
Away Win
41%
-0.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
56%
-7.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
44%
+7.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro Largo EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo) EU Bookmakers 45%
+12% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.13/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.11
-2% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -4%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
244 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro Largo
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 5
12.05.2024 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-1 HT 2-1 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
10.11.2023 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 3-0 HT 3-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
17.06.2023 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-3 HT 0-0 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
01.04.2023 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
16.10.2022 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 1-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
28.05.2022 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-2 HT 0-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro Largo
1-0
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cerro Largo vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Largo nicked a narrow win over Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 22% / 40% — and on the day Cerro Largo made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Cerro Largo had 46% of the ball to Liverpool FC (Montevideo)'s 54%, shots finished 8-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cerro Largo and 1.83 for Liverpool FC (Montevideo).

What was the final score of Cerro Largo vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

Cerro Largo 1-0 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) in the Uruguay - Premier League on 06/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro Largo vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool FC (Montevideo) win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cerro Largo 38%, draw 22%, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 40%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool FC (Montevideo)) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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