CA Penarol 1-1 Deportivo Maldonado — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 6 Jul 2024

📅06/07/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
18%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.13
No
56%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
29%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
66%
-7.6pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.3pp
18%
Away Win
13%
+5.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.0pp
56%
BTTS No
57%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Maldonado EU Bookmakers 16%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +18%
1.55/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.79
-18% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +79% / +2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
457 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Maldonado
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 5
08.04.2024 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 1-2 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
14.10.2023 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 0-1 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
05.03.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 HT 1-1 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
23.08.2022 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 1-1 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
20.03.2022 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
17.10.2021 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
1-1
AWAY Deportivo Maldonado
72% Ball Possession 28%
22 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Deportivo Maldonado
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol and Deportivo Maldonado couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had CA Penarol at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, CA Penarol had 72% of the ball to Deportivo Maldonado's 28%, shots finished 22-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for CA Penarol and 0.83 for Deportivo Maldonado.

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Deportivo Maldonado?

CA Penarol 1-1 Deportivo Maldonado in the Uruguay - Premier League on 06/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 59%, draw 23%, Deportivo Maldonado 18%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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