Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 0-1 Naftan Novopolotsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 6 Jul 2025

📅06/07/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
30%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
2.92
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.68
6+ Goals
10%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 29% vs market 27.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
30%
Away Win
21%
+8.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.0pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk EU Bookmakers 24%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.59/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.36
-9% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
282 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
24.11.2024 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 0-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk BLR
30.06.2024 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 0-3 HT 0-3 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
30.10.2021 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 0-0 HT 0-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR1
14.08.2021 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 0-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk BLR1
31.05.2020 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 4-2 HT 1-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
0-1
AWAY Naftan Novopolotsk
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naftan Novopolotsk nicked a narrow win over Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk had 51% of the ball to Naftan Novopolotsk's 49%, shots finished 8-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk and 1.00 for Naftan Novopolotsk.

What was the final score of Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk?

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 0-1 Naftan Novopolotsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 06/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk vs Naftan Novopolotsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 45%, draw 25%, Naftan Novopolotsk 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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