Chelsea 1-1 Nottingham Forest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 6 Oct 2024

Chelsea
1-1 HT 0-0
Nottingham Forest
📅06/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.58
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.88
6+ Goals
14%
8.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.88
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
15.95
X/1
12%
3.87
X/2
7%
11.75
X/X
8%
6.32
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.8
2/2
11%
8.57
2/X
5%
16.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.8 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-7.8pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.4pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.2pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chelsea v Nottingham Forest — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -7%
2.11/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.61
-7% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
393 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 78%
31.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
19.6 Crosses 12.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Nottingham Forest
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.87 xG 1.01
72% Ball Possession 28%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
624 Passes 204
90% Pass Accuracy 73%
32 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.05.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-3 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
02.09.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
13.05.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 2-2 HT 0-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
01.01.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 0-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
05.01.2020 Chelsea Chelsea 2-0 HT 2-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest FAK
05.01.2019 Chelsea Chelsea 2-0 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest FAK

Chelsea 1-1 Nottingham Forest — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
1-1
AWAY Nottingham Forest
2.46 xG 0.87
66% Ball Possession 34%
22 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 9
11 Corners 3
519 Passes 233
88% Pass Accuracy 76%
51 Box Touches 22
29 Crosses 11
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea and Nottingham Forest shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Chelsea at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chelsea had 66% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 34%, shots finished 22-16, expected goals 2.46 to 0.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chelsea had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Chelsea and 1.00 for Nottingham Forest.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest?

Chelsea 1-1 Nottingham Forest in the England - Premier League on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 53%, draw 23%, Nottingham Forest 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chelsea) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
6 Oct 2024
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