Nottingham Forest 2-3 Chelsea — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.5
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
39%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.43
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.93
6+ Goals
10%
8.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
20%
6.0
1/2
8%
21.25
1/X
6%
14.3
X/1
10%
8.66
X/2
17%
4.31
X/X
11%
5.69
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
14%
2.3
2/X
8%
13.85
Value flag · 1/1 at 6.0 — our 20% vs market 12.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
25%
+11.1pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.4pp
40%
Away Win
52%
-12.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.4pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea EU Bookmakers 56%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.06/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.04
+37% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +10%
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
251 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 413 · 81%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.8
16.7 Crosses 19.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nottingham Forest
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Chelsea
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.90 xG 1.92
29% Ball Possession 71%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
200 Passes 636
72% Pass Accuracy 90%
11 Box Touches 34
8 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
13.05.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 2-2 HT 0-1 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
01.01.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-1 HT 0-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
05.01.2020 Chelsea Chelsea 2-0 HT 2-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest FAK
05.01.2019 Chelsea Chelsea 2-0 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest FAK
20.09.2017 Chelsea Chelsea 5-1 HT 3-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nottingham Forest
2-3
AWAY Chelsea
1.55 xG 1.62
32% Ball Possession 68%
20 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
223 Passes 568
80% Pass Accuracy 91%
33 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea nicked a narrow win over Nottingham Forest 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 25% / 40% — and on the day Chelsea made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Nottingham Forest had 32% of the ball to Chelsea's 68%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 1.55 to 1.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chelsea led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Nottingham Forest and 2.00 for Chelsea.

What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?

Nottingham Forest 2-3 Chelsea in the England - Premier League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 36%, draw 25%, Chelsea 40%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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