Tottenham 2-1 Burnley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.34
Draw
20%
5.15
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
4.0
Over 2.5
63%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.43
No
45%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
11.0
2-3 Goals
39%
2.67
4-5 Goals
28%
2.31
6+ Goals
17%
3.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.51
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
19.35
X/1 EV+ ✓
26%
4.04
X/2
6%
17.6
X/X
7%
10.65
2/1
7%
16.4
2/2
7%
10.4
2/X
6%
18.8
Value flag · X/1 at 4.04 — our 26% vs market 19.3%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
70%
-7.5pp
20%
Draw
16%
+3.5pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+4.0pp
37%
Under 2.5
22%
+15.2pp
63%
Over 2.5
78%
-15.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
66%
-11.1pp
45%
BTTS No
34%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tottenham EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Burnley EU Bookmakers 17%
-1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +3%
1.87/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.78
-4% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +29%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
475 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
21.4 Crosses 16.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tottenham
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Burnley
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.66 xG 0.87
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
527 Passes 282
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
35 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.01.2024 Tottenham Tottenham 1-0 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley FAK
02.09.2023 Burnley Burnley 2-5 HT 1-2 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
15.05.2022 Tottenham Tottenham 1-0 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
23.02.2022 Burnley Burnley 1-0 HT 0-0 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
27.10.2021 Burnley Burnley 0-1 HT 0-0 Tottenham Tottenham İNLK
28.02.2021 Tottenham Tottenham 4-0 HT 3-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tottenham
2-1
AWAY Burnley
2.72 xG 0.67
63% Ball Possession 37%
21 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
482 Passes 235
88% Pass Accuracy 74%
47 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Tottenham vs Burnley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tottenham nicked a narrow win over Burnley 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tottenham as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Tottenham had 63% of the ball to Burnley's 37%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 2.72 to 0.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tottenham's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tottenham had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Tottenham and 0.50 for Burnley.

What was the final score of Tottenham vs Burnley?

Tottenham 2-1 Burnley in the England - Premier League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tottenham vs Burnley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tottenham win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Tottenham 62%, draw 20%, Burnley 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tottenham), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tottenham) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
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