West Ham United 3-1 Luton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.61
Over 2.5
60%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.41
No
44%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.27
2-3 Goals
38%
2.1
4-5 Goals
29%
2.54
6+ Goals
14%
5.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.33
1/2
5%
32.0
1/X
5%
13.0
X/1
14%
4.75
X/2
9%
8.5
X/X
13%
6.38
2/1 EV+ ✓
7%
19.8
2/2
12%
5.17
2/X
9%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.8 — our 7% vs market 2.6%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
51%
-3.5pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.1pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.5pp
40%
Under 2.5
35%
+5.6pp
60%
Over 2.5
65%
-5.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
67%
-11.1pp
44%
BTTS No
33%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME West Ham United EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Luton Town EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.37/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.90
-18% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
348 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 79%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
23.4 Crosses 24.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME West Ham United
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Luton Town
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.03 xG 1.47
61% Ball Possession 39%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 9
507 Passes 266
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 31
15 Crosses 31
1 Yellow Cards 1
01.09.2023 Luton Town Luton Town 1-2 HT 0-1 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME West Ham United
3-1
AWAY Luton Town
3.17 xG 0.32
58% Ball Possession 42%
24 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 6
382 Passes 248
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
38 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH West Ham United vs Luton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

West Ham United beat Luton Town 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had West Ham United as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, West Ham United had 58% of the ball to Luton Town's 42%, shots finished 24-4, expected goals 3.17 to 0.32.

What was the final score of West Ham United vs Luton Town?

West Ham United 3-1 Luton Town in the England - Premier League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for West Ham United vs Luton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a West Ham United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split West Ham United 47%, draw 27%, Luton Town 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (West Ham United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (West Ham United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
11 May 2024
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