AFC Malmö 2-1 Norrby IF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - 1st Division, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.6pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Malmö EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Norrby IF EU Bookmakers 33%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
2.05/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/0.98
+30% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / +58%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
302 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Malmö
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Norrby IF
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.04.2024 Norrby IF Norrby IF 1-2 HT 1-1 AFC Malmö İSÇ3
11.11.2023 Norrby IF Norrby IF 3-0 HT 2-0 AFC Malmö İSÇ3
15.04.2023 AFC Malmö 0-1 HT 0-1 Norrby IF Norrby IF İSÇ3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Malmö
2-1
AWAY Norrby IF
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AFC Malmö vs Norrby IF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Malmö squeezed past Norrby IF 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had AFC Malmö as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, AFC Malmö had 50% of the ball to Norrby IF's 50%, shots finished 9-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Norrby IF led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for AFC Malmö and 1.67 for Norrby IF.

What was the final score of AFC Malmö vs Norrby IF?

AFC Malmö 2-1 Norrby IF in the Sweden - 1st Division on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Malmö vs Norrby IF?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Malmö win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split AFC Malmö 43%, draw 26%, Norrby IF 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AFC Malmö), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AFC Malmö) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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