Eldense 2-3 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 6 Oct 2024

Eldense
2-3 HT 2-3
CD Castellon
📅06/10/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Eldense vs CD Castellon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.27
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.95
Over 2.5
41%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.59
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.34
6+ Goals
8%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.59 — our 29% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.33
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
9%
12.15
X/1
11%
5.36
X/2
18%
6.26
X/X
15%
4.55
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
10%
4.16
2/X
8%
12.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
40%
-5.4pp
32%
Draw
28%
+4.1pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+1.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
48%
+11.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
52%
-11.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.3pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Eldense v CD Castellon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eldense EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 36%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +25%
1.31/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.56
+13% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / +150%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
241 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
20.5 Crosses 15.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.3

Eldense vs CD Castellon Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eldense
0W-1D-1L
AWAY CD Castellon
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
6 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.02.2023 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-0 HT 1-0 Eldense Eldense İS3
30.10.2022 Eldense Eldense 1-1 HT 0-1 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS3

Eldense 2-3 CD Castellon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eldense
2-3
AWAY CD Castellon
2.60 xG 1.43
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 1
195 Passes 281
69% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 19
26 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Eldense vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Castellon edged past Eldense 3-2 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 32% / 33%) promised a tight game; CD Castellon found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Eldense had 45% of the ball to CD Castellon's 55%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 2.60 to 1.43 — on chances, Eldense could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, CD Castellon led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Eldense and 1.50 for CD Castellon.

What was the final score of Eldense vs CD Castellon?

Eldense 2-3 CD Castellon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eldense vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Eldense win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Eldense 35%, draw 32%, CD Castellon 33%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Eldense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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